US NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTRE, August 15, 2021 - Tropical Storm Grace, which formed on Saturday morning in the Atlantic Ocean continues to grow stronger, while Fred weakened into a tropical wave as it headed into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
The US National Hurricane Center in its 5:00 pm EDT advisory said that Grace was centred about 55 miles (85 kilometres) east-south-east of Guadeloupe. It was moving west at 26 mph (43 kph) with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 kph), down from 45 mph (75 kph) earlier in the day.
A tropical storm warning was issued for the British Virgin Islands, the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. A tropical storm watch was in effect for the Dominican Republic, which forecasters said Grace could reach by tomorrow.
Grace was forecast to bring three to six inches (7.5 to 15 centimetres) of rain to the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico into Monday. The current forecast has Grace approaching South Florida as a tropical storm by midweek.
Tropical Depression Grace 800 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021
LOCATION...17.1N 68.1W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM ESE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H; MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the entire coast of the Dominican Republic, and the entire coast of Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.Interests elsewhere in the the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Grace.
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located by an Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 68.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A general west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, Grace will move over Hispaniola on Monday, near or over eastern Cuba on Tuesday, and near or over west-central Cuba on Wednesday.
The aircraft reported that maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or two. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday, and Haiti on Monday and Monday night.
RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts today into Tuesday: Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban flooding. Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding and possible mudslides. Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches across southern terrain areas. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding and possible mudslides from Monday into Tuesday. By mid to late week, heavy rainfall from this system could impact portions of Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida.
SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and will reach portions of Hispaniola tonight and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.