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Despite dead heat, PNP gaining momentum says Johnson Polls

  • Written by News JamaicaSource: Gleaner
  • Published in local news
Featured Despite dead heat, PNP gaining momentum says Johnson Polls
The latest Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson polls says while opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) “treading water”, the governing People's National Party (PNP) has gained a positive momentum that could see it retaining state power.

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The Gleaner in its Sunday edition says “the PNP's push is being fuelled mainly by people from households that have traditionally supported the party and want to see it re-elected.”

poll4According to the Gleaner, the latest Bill Johnson polls show that “the PNP has gained 12 percentage points since the last polls, when Jamaicans were asked which party they would vote for if a general election were called now.”

“The PNP's surge has pushed it ahead of the JLP, albeit by one per cent, which is well within the sampling error of the poll, leaving the parties in a dead heat.

“Based on the latest poll, 27 per cent of electors would vote PNP if the general election were called now. This is up from 15 per cent last year.

“The JLP, on the other hand, has lost a percentage point since the survey last year, slipping from 27 per cent support to 26 per cent.

"Even though it is a statistical dead heat, the PNP has a definite positive momentum and the JLP is treading water," said Johnson.

"I would be feeling very uncomfortable if I were a JLP supporter. I would be having sleepless nights. The JLP has been treading water over the past year, and the perception of the party leader is not good," added Johnson.

“The political party with the lead in the Gleaner-Johnson polls closest to the general election date has won the last two general elections.

“In 2011, the PNP went into the election leading the Andrew Holness-led JLP by two percentage points in the opinion polls, and went on to win 42 of the 63 seats in the House of Representatives.

poll5“Then, 38 per cent of those polled by Johnson said they would support the PNP in the election, and 36 per cent favoured the JLP.

Johnson's latest poll was conducted from September 25-27, 2015, among 1,200 Jamaicans. The poll, which has a sampling error of +3% or -3%, was conducted shortly after the PNP held its 77th annual conference in Kingston.

The poll found that the vast majority of the persons who intend to vote for the PNP - 45 per cent - would do so because of family tradition.

Conversely, family tradition would only lead 23 per cent of Jamaicans to vote for the JLP.

"A year ago, traditional PNP supporters were dissatisfied, but now they are running back to their party," said Johnson.

Last modified onWednesday, 18 November 2015 13:42