According to CADRES, a larger percentage of those polled have committed to vote for the Dominica Labour Party (DLP) than for the rival United Workers Party (UWP).
The results of the CADRES poll, conducted during the month of October 2019, were presented by the company’s Director, Peter Wickham, at the Garraway Hotel this morning. He cautioned that the outcome of the upcoming general election could be determined by the significant number of uncertain voters borne out by the poll.
According to CADRES, 37% of respondents said that they were committed to voting for the DLP, while 30% expressed their commitment to vote for the UWP.
A total of 32% were uncommitted, and according to CADRES, “Uncertain” group is large enough to influence the outcome of the election either way.
1% said they would vote for “another party” which the pollsters are presuming “spoke to a political entity which did not materialize on nomination day.”
In his analysis, Peter Wickham said “assumptions regarding the outcome of this election would naturally revolve around the voting behaviour of this “Uncertain” group which has admittedly conveyed some sense of their support by virtue of their Prime Ministerial preference.”
He said historically, this ‘uncertain’ group would tend to favour the incumbent.
At the CADRES media presentation on Thursday, Wickham maintained that despite the decline of support for the Dominica Labour Party they “will win the December 6, 2019 general elections.”
While he was not at liberty to divulge information about the winners at constituency level Wickham insisted that the DLP would win a majority of seats but cautioned that he would be “surprised if they win a landslide.”
“The Dominica Labour Party (DLP) has been on a downward trajectory since the last general election in 2014 and my expectations are that this will continue in this election,” Wickham pointed out.
However, he maintains that the decline, if managed effectively, may not be enough to cause the DLP to be removed from office.
“I have been seeing a couple of interesting phenomena…because within some specific constituencies there have been movements that are interesting. I am not authorized to speak on constituency data but I think you can see a situation in the national level they are losing support but is able to impact on non-traditional seats,” Wickham said.
“We note, however, that some amount of caution needs to be observed on this occasion as voter lethargy appears to have increased since the last election. Therefore, our projection of a Labour victory could be negatively impacted IF Labour is not able to mobilise sufficiently on election day, or IF the UWP is better mobilised and able to capture the interest of these lethargic voters in the remaining weeks,” Wickham cautioned.
Wickham declined to say who commissioned this poll but revealed that electoral reform did not come up as an issue in the CADRES poll because the questions were “structured.”
“Electoral reform did not come up and suggests to me that it is not an issue which keeps people up at night. My sense from being in Dominica and I am aware of the recent issues, the machinations and the protest…and the fact that the opposition decided to contest the elections says that the issue of electoral reform can’t possibly be that pertinent to them otherwise they would not have contested the elections,” Wickham concluded.
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