Tensions Running High between Somalia and Ethiopia over Somaliland Port deal

KINGSTON,  Jamaica, January 17, 2024 - in a major escalation of the diplomatic row between both contending countries, Somalia has turned away a plane transporting officials from Ethiopia to the Republic of Somaliland.

Somalia's information minister said the plane did not have permission to be in that country's airspace.

The Ethiopian officials were visiting Somaliland to discuss a deal which has sparked a huge row as Somalia considers Somaliland to be part of its territory.

In an agreement signed on January 1, Somaliland says it will allow Ethiopia to lease one of its Red Sea naval ports  in exchange for a stake in Ethiopian Airlines and possible recognition of Somaliland as a sovereign state.

However, Somalia is not happy with the deal, and has sparked anger in Somalia which considers  Somaliland, a self-governing breakaway state, as part of its own northern territory.

On Tuesday, Mogadishu recalled its ambassador from Ethiopia to hold “deliberations” on the issue, stating that the port agreement signed a day earlier would increase tensions and endanger stability in the wider Horn of Africa region.

What’s the deal about?

Signed in Addis Ababa by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somaliland’s leader Muse Bihi Abdi, the agreement grants Ethiopia a 50-year lease on a naval base with access to Somaliland’s Berbera port for commercial marine operations.

In return, Ethiopia says it will provide an “in-depth assessment” of Somaliland’s quest for official recognition as an independent nation – the first time any other country has offered to do this. Somaliland will also receive a stake in state-owned Ethiopian Airlines, an Ethiopian government statement revealed, although details about this part of the agreement, especially regarding any additional monetary payment, are scant.

In a separate statement posted on X, Abiy’s office called the deal an “historic” one that would allow Addis Ababa to “diversify its access to seaports”. It added that it would also enable both parties to deepen ties across economic and political sectors.

Prime Minister @AbiyAhmedAli and the President of Somaliland Muse Bihe Abdi have signed a historic Memorandum of Understanding in Addis Ababa.#PMOEthiopia pic.twitter.com/6lPlCoepGr

— Office of the Prime Minister - Ethiopia (@PMEthiopia) January 1, 2024

The agreement has been long-awaited. In 2019, Ethiopia bought a 19 percent stake in the Port of Berbera with Somaliland retaining 30 percent and Dubai firm and port manager DP World holding 51 percent. In exchange for financing a continuing upgrade of the port with about $442m, DP World will manage the port for 30 years. The United Arab Emirates group’s investment in Berbera has previously sparked controversy in Somalia with parliament voting in 2018 for the deal to be declared null and void. That action had little effect on stopping the project. The port will open Ethiopia up to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, giving it access to Europe. Precisely when the lease will take effect is unclear.\

Why is Somalia angry about this deal?

Historically, Somaliland, home to approximately four million people, was under British protection until 1960. It enjoyed a brief period of independence before joining Somalia to form a united republic. However, in 1991, after a conflict largely driven by ethnic divisions, Somaliland declared its independence from Somalia, an action that has led to ongoing tensions.

Today, Somaliland operates with a significant degree of autonomy. It has its own currency, the Somaliland shilling, issues its passports, and conducts elections. Despite its lack of international recognition and limited financial resources, experts often cite Somaliland as one of the world's most stable de facto states.

The Somali government, based in Mogadishu, views any international acknowledgment of Somaliland as a direct threat to its sovereignty. This stance was evident in the government's strong condemnation of Somaliland's recent port agreement with Ethiopia, labeling it an "outrageous" and "unauthorized" intrusion into Somalia's territorial integrity. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud expressed his government's determination not to allow such actions to compromise Somalia's sovereignty.

We vehemently condemn and strongly reject the outrageous actions of the Ethiopian FG in signing an unauthroized Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland (the Northern Regions of Somalia) on January 1, 2024, in Addis Ababa. pic.twitter.com/84ngjhxvK9

— Permanent Secretary Office for Foreign Affairs߇谟素(@PSMOFA) January 3, 2024

This latest incident casts a shadow over the recently reinitiated mediation efforts led by Djibouti, aimed at resolving the long-standing issues between Somalia and Somaliland. According to Moustafa Ahmad, an independent researcher in Hargeisa, the talks had differing objectives from the start, with Somalia seeking reunification and Somaliland asserting its independence. The current crisis, Ahmad suggests, may have accelerated the collapse of these already fragile negotiations.

Why does Ethiopia want access to the sea?

The recent developments in the Somalia-Somaliland dispute are further complicated by the strategic interests of Ethiopia, a landlocked nation in East Africa. 

Ethiopia, with a burgeoning population of 120 million, faces significant economic challenges due to its lack of a seaport.

Historically, Ethiopia had access to the Gulf of Aden. However, following a prolonged conflict that culminated in Eritrea's secession in 1993, Ethiopia lost its coastline. Since then, the country has primarily depended on Djibouti for maritime access. The Port of Djibouti is a vital lifeline, handling over 95% of Ethiopia's inbound and outbound cargo, and Addis Ababa even operates a shipping line from this port.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed emphasized the crucial role of maritime access in a parliamentary address on October 13. He poignantly described Ethiopia as an "island surrounded by water but a country that is thirsty," highlighting the Red Sea and the Nile as pivotal to the nation's fate. 

His remarks initially sparked fears of potential military ambitions in a region already grappling with political turmoil and climate crises. However, Addis Ababa later clarified that the Prime Minister's comments were not indicative of any military intentions.

Moustafa Ahmad, the independent researcher, noted the potential regional implications of Ethiopia's quest for maritime access. Ethiopia's involvement in a peacekeeping mission in Somalia could be at stake amid these diplomatic tensions. 

Domestically, Ahmad observed that this pursuit might bolster Prime Minister Abiy's image, which has suffered due to conflicts in the Tigray, Amhara, and Oromo regions, as well as recent economic challenges. 

Access to the sea has long been a matter of national importance in Ethiopia, and the new deal with Somaliland could provide significant political leverage for Abiy's administration.

Several countries and international organisations have waded into the dispute, most of them backing Somalia. The African Union, Egypt, Qatar, Turkey and the United States issued statements this week that urged Ethiopia to respect Mogadishu’s sovereignty.

So have the European Union, the Organisation for Islamic Cooperation and the Arab League. In a statement on X, the league, of which Somalia is a member, advised Ethiopia to “adhere to the rules and principles of good neighborliness”.

The Intergovernmental Authority on Development, or IGAD, an East African trading bloc, refused to take sides on Wednesday, calling instead on all parties to resolve the issue amicably. Mogadishu has criticised this response, saying it fell short of a proper condemnation.

What are the next steps ?

Amidst the escalating diplomatic tensions and concerns, the mood in Somaliland sharply contrasts with the regional unease. The announcement of the port deal with Ethiopia was met with jubilant celebrations on the streets of Somaliland. 

The general sentiment in the region is one of optimistic anticipation, as the people of Somaliland see this deal as a step toward greater international recognition and economic independence from Mogadishu's influence.

Moustafa Ahmad, the analyst, captured the prevailing sentiment, noting a "cautious optimism" among Somalilanders. He observed that while there is happiness about potential international recognition, there is also an awareness of the uncertainties ahead, particularly regarding the response of regional and global powers to this development.

The reaction of the Somali government in Mogadishu to the port deal has been one of staunch opposition. As of now, Somalia has not outlined any specific legal actions to challenge the deal, other than declaring the leasing of the port in Somaliland illegal. 

The Somali government has taken diplomatic steps, severing ties with Ethiopia and lobbying other countries and regional bodies like IGAD to speak out against the agreement.

On the other hand, Ethiopia has reaffirmed its position, issuing a detailed statement on Wednesday. The statement defended the legality of the port agreement and empathized with Somaliland's situation. It highlighted that despite having consular relations with various countries, including Addis Ababa, Somaliland has not attained formal nation status. 

The Ethiopian government views the deal as an opportunity for Somaliland to receive unique assistance and partnerships, addressing their longstanding aspirations.

As the situation unfolds, all eyes remain on Somalia to see how it responds to these developments, which have the potential to reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa.

Source: Al Jazeera and news agencies