NIGER | Ignore the Bluff, ECOWAS Will Not go to War in Niger Says Joseph Wangija

Bola Tinubu, Nigeria's president and current chairman of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is perhaps one of the masterful politicians of our generation - a political godfather to many in Nigeria, including his predecessor, former president, Muhammadu Buhari. He is also seen as a maverick many.

While chairing the first ECOWAS crisis meeting in Abuja following the coup in Niger, Tinubu was firm in threatening the use of force against the putschists. A deadline was given to the military junta. The deadline came and went. 

On Thursday, ECOWAS ordered the activation of the ESF (ECOWAS Standby Force), meaning the body was preparing for military intervention in Niger. 

Tinubu is no fool. With his presidency being challenged in court, Tinubu has to appear to do something to please the Western powers who would be glad if ECOWAS sent troops in Niger to fight for their interests in the region.

Poverty-stricken Niger is too resource-rich and hence, dear for the West especially France and the USA to lose. A war, therefore, led by Africans against their own kin and kith would be nothing but most welcome news for the Western powers.

First, a war with Niger would help to create turmoil in the Sahel region.  Wars and diseases in Africa are things that offer the West ideal opportunities for the further exploitation of Africa.

Unlike Libya where the Europeans and the USA under the auspices of NATO have been accused of killing the brother leader, Muammar Gaddafi, In Niger, the blame would be apportioned to Africans themselves. 

Secondly, there's this African proverb: "When brothers fight to the death, a stranger inherits their father’s estate."

An ECOWAS invasion of Niger would not deter the mining operations of the French and the Americans.

These two countries have military bases in Niger, sufficient to protect their mining operations while Africans kill each other to restore "democracy” in Niger.

Tinubu, in a typical Nigerian abrasiveness style, therefore, is promising the use of force in Niger first and foremost to please the ears of the West but also, to send a strong message to his opponents at home.

ECOWAS cannot risk a war in Niger. They know that First, Niger is not Gambia. In 2017, when Yahya Jammeh refused to relinquish leadership after losing the polls, ECOWAS sent in the military which forced President Jammeh to relinquish power.

Gambia is surrounded by Senegal and is one of the smallest countries in West Africa. Niger on the other hand is one of the largest countries in Africa and over 80% of its landmass is a desert.

ECOWAS leadership cannot also take military action in Niger without approval from the UN security council. At the UN security council, Russia and China are likely to veto any military intervention in Niger. The African Union as a body is also likely not to support a military approach. 

To complicate matters, Nigeria as the big brother would be looked at to provide the bulk of the military and logistics. For these resources to be committed, the Senate and parliament must approve same. This alone would be a herculean task and I will explain.

Africa really is one country. Nigerians and Nigeriens are one people separated only by the borders which were imposed upon us by the Europeans during the scramble and partition of Africa which occurred during the infamous 1884-1885 Berlin conference. Over 50% of Nigeriens speak Husa, one of the main languages spoken in Nigeria.

Already, the Senator and members of parliament from the north have made it clear that they would never support a war in Niger. This is because; people living in Nigeria have families and relatives in Niger and vice versa.

To win a war, one needs support from the locals. In Niger, the coup has been positively received by the masses. Only the Taureges and Arabs could be against the junta, however, their number is negligible.  

The population sees the junta leaders as liberators. They also see the deposed president, Mohamed Bazoum as a Western puppet. Generally, Western influence across Africa is waning and the West has itself to blame.

Western powers in Africa have been excessively greedy. In 1944, for example, France formulated what was termed The French Colonial Pact. The objective was to ensure the continuity of the French colonial grip on Africa.

This agreement gave France monopoly and perpetual control over her former colonies including Niger. Beneath the desert sands of Niger, lies huge deposits of uranium, a resource that Western powers are craving for two reasons: to generate electricity and of course the mischief of making atomic bombs. 

France earns significantly from the sale of electricity and the uranium looted from Niger contributes significantly to those earnings. France claims they now only obtain 20% of their uranium needs from Niger.  What they do not tell the world, however, is that France has been mining uranium in Niger since 1971. Paradoxically, Niger still imports electricity from Nigeria. 

The now so-caring France, which is willing to support a war in Niger to restore democracy failed to set up even a simple power generation plant even from wind or solar to guarantee the Nigeriens a steady power supply.

Niger also has one of the strongest and most battle-hardened military on the continent. It is because of this that they have outperformed their neighbors in combating insurgents; Boko Haram and the Al-Qeade roaming the Sahel desert.  

When one considers the foregoing, it can be seen that military operations in Niger may not produce the desired results. Personally, I believe that sanctions and increased isolation can push the junta into a corner for negotiations.

Niger is largely dependent on its neighbors, especially Nigeria. President Bola Tinubu can better leverage this, not war.

Mr Joseph Wangija is a research and Policy Analyst