GUYANA Border Tensions to Persist Despite ICJ Ruling, Warns Gonsalves

KINGSTOWN, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, March 6, 2025 -  Prime Minister Dr. Ralph Gonsalves delivered a sobering forecast on Wednesday: the Guyana-Venezuela border dispute will continue to simmer even after the International Court of Justice (ICJ) renders its verdict later this year.

"The Argyle Declaration works. Even after the ICJ delivers its judgement, whichever way they go, you're still going to have tension," Gonsalves stated during an appearance on the state-owned National Broadcasting Corporation's "Your Morning Cup."

His assessment comes as Venezuela maintains its refusal to recognize the ICJ's jurisdiction while simultaneously submitting arguments to the same court—a diplomatic contradiction that underscores the complexity of the situation.

Venezuela continues to push its own interpretation of the 1966 Geneva Agreement, insisting on bilateral resolution despite the Hague-based ICJ's anticipated ruling on the validity of the 1899 Arbitral Tribunal Award that Guyana maintains settled the land boundary conclusively.

The peace accord architect stressed the urgent need for the parties to reconvene following the March 1 incursion of a Venezuelan military vessel into Guyana's waters. "We still have to meet to have this matter thrashed out so that we don't have a repetition of this. It's not the first time since Argyle that matters have had to be muted by us," Gonsalves explained.

When President Irfaan Ali alerted Caribbean Community (CARICOM) leaders about the Venezuelan incursion, the CARICOM-Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) mechanism sprang into action, working through the night.

Gonsalves was tight-lipped about the specific diplomatic maneuvers employed by himself as interlocutor under the December 2023 Argyle Agreement, CARICOM Chairman Mia Mottley, former chairman Roosevelt Skerritt, and Brazilian representatives in resolving the four-hour maritime standoff.

The United States, notified by Ali due to American oil giant ExxonMobil's operation of floating production storage and offloading platforms in the disputed waters, quickly warned the Maduro administration of "consequences" should such provocations recur. "We had to ensure that there would be peace and calm and there would be no provocation," Gonsalves noted.

Tensions continue to escalate on multiple fronts. Venezuela has failed to apprehend gang members who shot and injured six Guyanese soldiers on the Cuyuni River on February 17, instead accusing Guyana Defence Force soldiers of entering the Essequibo Region and attacking Venezuelans.

CARICOM has condemned the shooting and called on Venezuela to abandon plans for April 27 elections for a Governor and Legislative Council in territory Guyana considers its own.

Despite critics dismissing the Argyle Declaration as a "joke," Gonsalves defended the accord between Presidents Ali and Maduro as having "assisted in keeping the peace." He painted a grim picture of the alternative: a conflict potentially spawning casualties, refugees, and "persons of undesirable character."

More ominously, Gonsalves warned that external allies could transform a bilateral dispute into a regional conflagration affecting all of Latin America and the Caribbean.

The diplomatic chessboard is clearly defined: Guyana enjoys robust support from the United States, United Kingdom, and France, while Venezuela counts Russia and Iran among its strategic partners—a geopolitical powder keg requiring careful management.

-30-