JAMAICA | Political Tribalism Paralyzes Jamaica as Nation Heads to Historic Election

KINGSTON, Jamaica June 20, 2025 - Jamaica stands at a crossroads of democratic dysfunction, where political tribalism has so thoroughly poisoned public discourse that citizens can no longer objectively assess their government's performance, according to damning new polling that exposes the depth of the country's political crisis.

The latest RJR-Gleaner commissioned Don Anderson polls, conducted between May 18 and June 7 among 1,033 registered voters, paint a portrait of a nation where party loyalty has displaced critical thinking just months before what could be the most consequential election in Jamaica's modern history.

In perhaps the most striking revelation, nearly one in three Jamaicans—29.2 percent—claim they cannot identify a single area where the Dr. Andrew Holness administration has excelled since 2020. Yet in a mirror image that exposes the partisan divide, almost the same proportion—24 percent—insist they cannot pinpoint any area of government failure.

"The responses highlight the absence of objectivity and instead a falling in line behind their support for respective parties," observed pollster Don Anderson, whose Market Research Services conducted the survey. This statistical symmetry, he argues, reveals voters drawing "lines on the basis of political support" rather than evidence-based assessment.

The tribal nature of these responses becomes even more apparent when examining who provided them. Anderson noted that the 24 percent claiming the government "handled nothing badly" indicated they would be voting for the governing Jamaica Labour Party, while those citing government failures predominantly aligned with the opposition People's National Party.

Infrastructure Tops Achievements, Cost of Living Leads Complaints

Where Jamaicans do venture specific opinions, their priorities reflect immediate, tangible concerns. Among those willing to credit the government, improved infrastructure leads at 19.8 percent, followed by increased social benefits including the Programme of Advancement Through Health (PATH) at 10.1 percent. The government's COVID-19 pandemic response earned recognition from 9.2 percent, while 5.7 percent highlighted the increase in income tax thresholds.

Anderson observed that older Jamaicans were most impressed by infrastructure work, while younger citizens were more likely to acknowledge the pandemic response—a generational divide that extends far beyond policy preferences.

On the criticism front, poor infrastructure ironically topped complaints at 15.1 percent, followed by the increased cost of living at 13.1 percent and job unavailability at 10.2 percent. Healthcare services rounded out the top concerns at 9.3 percent, creating what Anderson called "factors highlighted as negatives by respondents that are also mentioned among the positives."

Corruption Crisis Engulfs Both Parties

Perhaps most devastating for Jamaica's democratic institutions is the wholesale collapse of public confidence in both major parties' commitment to fighting corruption. When asked which party demonstrates greater dedication to combating graft, a plurality of 26.5 percent responded with brutal honesty: "none."

The governing JLP and opposition PNP found themselves in a statistical dead heat, earning the confidence of just 25.3 and 25.7 percent respectively. Another 22.6 percent admitted uncertainty, meaning nearly half the population—49.1 percent—sees little meaningful difference between the parties on integrity.

"Both parties have work to do in changing the perception of the people in terms of their commitment to fighting corruption," Anderson understated. This credibility crisis unfolds as the Holness administration faces mounting allegations of impropriety, prompting PNP President Mark Golding to declare that "the people of Jamaica have lost all confidence in the ethical and moral foundation of this government."

The corruption findings show no significant generational variation, suggesting the cynicism spans all age groups—a particularly troubling sign for Jamaica's democratic future.

Youth Exodus Mentality Threatens National Future

The most alarming revelation may be the overwhelming desire among young Jamaicans to abandon their homeland entirely. A staggering 71.2 percent of 18-24 year-olds express willingness to migrate, along with 65.8 percent of those aged 25-34—the very demographics that should drive Jamaica's development.

This youth exodus mentality stands in stark contrast to older cohorts, where 86.5 percent of those over 65 prefer to remain, along with 74 percent of 55-64 year-olds. The middle-aged show mixed feelings, with 51.3 percent of 35-44 year-olds also expressing migration interest.

Among potential emigrants, the United States dominates preferences at 49.9 percent, followed by Canada at 42.6 percent. European countries and the United Kingdom together attract 23.2 percent, while other Caribbean nations appeal to just 8 percent. Notably, 8.2 percent of would-be emigrants haven't even decided on a destination—they simply want out.

The gender divide proves minimal, with 58.4 percent of men and 55.5 percent of women preferring to stay, suggesting the migration impulse transcends traditional demographic boundaries.

Personality Politics Dominates Recognition

The poll's ministerial recognition data reveals Jamaica's personality-driven political culture in stark relief. While Prime Minister Holness commands recognition from 52.7 percent of respondents, opposition leader Mark Golding actually surpasses him at 57.4 percent—what Anderson termed an "interesting" development given Golding's higher "spontaneous mention" rate.

Among government ministers, Health Minister Dr. Christopher Tufton emerges as the clear second-in-command at 37.1 percent recognition, maintaining his position as a potential succession candidate. Culture Minister Olivia Grange follows at 30.9 percent, with Finance Minister Fayval Williams at 27.6 percent and Local Government Minister Desmond McKenzie at 25.2 percent.

Tellingly, 22.3 percent of Jamaicans cannot name a single cabinet minister beyond the Prime Minister—a concerning indicator of civic engagement.

On the opposition side, retiring MP Lisa Hanna ranks second at 36.1 percent, followed by shadow energy minister Phillip Paulwell at 29.5 percent and finance spokesperson Julian Robinson at 26.8 percent. Foreign affairs spokesperson Dr. Angela Brown Burke rounds out the top five at 23.1 percent.

Anderson noted the conspicuous absence of previously prominent figures like Damion Crawford, who managed only 7 percent recognition despite historically ranking "in the top three" for succession questions.

Election Implications Loom Large

These findings emerge as both parties gear up for what promises to be a fiercely contested election, with Prime Minister Holness recently declaring the JLP in "full campaign mode" for polls expected by September. The governing party, riding high on its historic 49-14 seat victory in 2020, now faces a more unified opposition that outpolled the JLP by 20,000 votes in February's local government elections.

The poll's revelation of deep-seated political tribalism suggests that victory may depend less on policy achievements than on which side can better mobilize their partisan base while appealing to the substantial bloc of disaffected and undecided voters. With corruption concerns neutralizing both parties and youth increasingly seeking escape rather than engagement, Jamaica faces the prospect of an election where cynicism rather than hope drives the outcome.

As the campaign intensifies, these findings serve as a stark warning about the state of Jamaican democracy—a system where partisan loyalty has so thoroughly displaced objective judgment that citizens can no longer agree on basic facts about their government's performance. Whether this represents a temporary political fever or a permanent feature of Jamaica's democratic landscape may well determine not just the next government, but the very future of the nation itself.

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