En 
Ar JAMAICA'S Demographic Winter: A Crisis Ignored
O. Dave Allen, a Community Advocate & Social Commentator
By O. Dave Allen
A Nation on the Brink of Population Extinction
MONTEGO BAY, Jamaica, October 7, 2025 - In a twist of demographic irony, Jamaica—celebrated land of 'wood and water', big bamboos and, shall we say, natural vitality—now ranks among the world's least fertile nations, according to the 2025 State of World Population report released by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA).
The country’s total fertility rate (TFR) — the average number of children a woman is expected to have — stands at just 1.3. That figure places Jamaica well below the replacement rate of 2.1, below the global average of 2.2, and lower than the Latin America and Caribbean regional average of 1.8.
It also puts the country on par with several nations that have been grappling with long-term population decline, including China (0.7), Greece (1.3), Japan (1.2), Republic of Korea (0.8), and Italy (1.2). This places Jamaica in the global category of nations facing a looming demographic collapse.
We are quietly sleepwalking into a demographic winter — a chilling reality that threatens not only our population numbers but the very soul of our culture, productivity, and national identity.
The implications are as dire as they are ignored: a shrinking population means a shrinking workforce, an aging society, and an economy losing its creative edge.
The Economic Time Bomb
Fewer young people means fewer innovators, taxpayers, and producers. It means lower productivity and a growing dependency on imported labour. Yet, while the evidence mounts, Jamaica’s leadership remains in denial, distracted by short-term investments rather than long-term survival.
Family Planning or Cultural Suicide?
This crisis did not appear overnight. It is the direct consequence of decades of misguided policy. When Jamaica embraced the slogan “Two is Too Many,” we accepted a dangerous narrative that saw fertility as a burden instead of a blessing.
The National Family Planning Unit—once well-meaning—became the vanguard of a cultural shift away from family, faith, and African continuity. What was framed as “progress” was, in truth, population control. The Rastafarian community, long ridiculed for its warnings, may have been prophetic when it declared that family planning was an attempt to “kill out black people.”
Ignored Warnings, Inevitable Consequences
For years, I have raised this alarm — yet the government, the church, and civil society have all turned a deaf ear. Instead of promoting family growth in a time of population decline, we doubled down on sterilization and contraception campaigns that now leave us facing a national crisis.
Today, the results are glaring: chronic labour shortages, an aging workforce, and a widening social gap.
We are quick to grant work permits to Chinese nationals to fill the void, yet reluctant — even hostile — toward our Black Haitian, CARICOM brothers and sisters, whose shared heritage could strengthen regional ties.
A Moral and Cultural Betrayal
This contradiction is more than a policy failure; it is a moral betrayal. Jamaica cannot preserve its sovereignty or its identity if its people stop reproducing and its labour force is outsourced.
If this trend continues unchecked, we may soon be teaching Mandarin in Kingston while our own children are missing from the classroom.
Regional Action, Jamaican Inaction
As of October 1, four Caribbean nations have committed to full freedom of movement under CARICOM.
Prime Minister Dr Andrew Holness, meanwhile, has offered only vague assurances that Jamaica is “working towards joining them soon.” This is not leadership — it is delay in the face of demographic collapse.
The Way Forward: A National Fertility Recovery Plan
The fertility crisis is reversible, but it demands radical change. The Holness administration must treat this as the first order of national business. We need a National Fertility Recovery Plan that:
• Reverses outdated anti-natalist policies;
• Provides economic and housing support for families;
• Restores value to marriage, parenting, and community life;
• Recognizes children as the foundation of national development.
The Cost of Inaction
Failure to act will have a tolling impact on Jamaica’s growth, social stability, and cultural survival. Our future depends not only on GDP, but on the generations we are willing to create and nurture. We can still repair this — but only if we have the courage to admit that we have been wrong.
By: O. Dave Allen 📧 Email: